Do I ship it?

Games › Social Deduction › Social Deduction + Stealth

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Stealth Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Stealth

Of 28 developers who shipped a Stealth Social Deduction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 42 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 42 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Stealth
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $2.5k → $1.7k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction + Stealth: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $9,017)
Top 5% $182k (exactly $182,218)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 58
Announced 42
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction, Stealth; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Action, Party Game
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Comedy, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,308 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.0k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 25 announced
  4. + PuzzleLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 22 announced
  5. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $18k · 17 announced
  7. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  9. + Character CustomizationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  10. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deceive Inc. 2023 · $2.9M In Silence 2021 · $2.8M Perfect Heist 2 2021 · $1.1M SpyParty 2018 · EA · $855k Oh Deer 2024 · $637k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
In Silence older $9.99 9,450 75% 284k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,165) Ravenhood Games
Perfect Heist 2 older $9.99 3,711 94% 111k $1.1M (exactly $1,112,187) yeswecamp
SpyParty · EA older $24.99 1,140 77% 34k $855k (exactly $854,658) Chris Hecker, John Cimino
Oh Deer older $9.99 2,125 84% 64k $637k (exactly $636,862) Cozy Cabin Studios
West Hunt older $9.99 1,522 84% 46k $456k (exactly $456,143) NewGen
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
Hidden in Plain Sight older $5.99 922 99% 28k $166k (exactly $165,683) Adam Spragg
The Ship: Remasted older $9.99 462 58% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Blazing Griffin
BACKROOMS: APPREHENSION $2.99 1,371 83% 41k $123k (exactly $122,979) DMNT Interactive
Airport Security Sucks! $7.99 458 85% 14k $110k (exactly $109,783) JakeHub, Metater
OCTOPinbs $9.99 45 68% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) tri-Ace, Lasengle Inc.
Werewolf Party $7.99 56 89% 1.7k $13k (exactly $13,423) Absam Studios
Paws Coven $6.99 43 67% 1.3k $9.0k (exactly $9,017) Wintercrow Games
Neon Knives $9.99 16 100% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Cookiecrayon
North Hunt $6.50 24 75% 720 $4.7k (exactly $4,680) NewGen
The Masquerade $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Chewa

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.