Do I ship it?

GamesSocial DeductionSocial Deduction + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Puzzle

Only 15 developers shipped a Puzzle Social Deduction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, LOCKDOWN Protocol, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $4.9M, ×3322 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 22 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 22 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Social Deduction + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,469)
Top 5% $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 32
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 550% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction, Puzzle; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Strategy, Online Co-Op
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 17,941 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $900, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $4.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 22 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 25 announced
  4. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $18k · 17 announced
  6. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  11. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds61 devs · median $1.5k · 102 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
In Silence older $9.99 9,450 75% 284k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,165) Ravenhood Games
Scam Line · EA $6.99 1,088 84% 33k $228k (exactly $228,154) RavenJm
Killer: Infected One of Us older $6.99 196 52% 5.9k $41k (exactly $41,101) DreamTeamGames
Who's Next? $4.99 123 87% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) HellAssociation
Cheater's Table · EA $6.99 69 95% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Lagari
Dungeon Tells $7.99 32 75% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Ace Benoff
Similo: The Card Game older $2.99 36 63% 1.1k $3.2k (exactly $3,229) Horrible Guild
Silly Suspects · EA $7.99 12 75% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Classy Games
FINIS older $10.99 8 75% 240 $2.6k (exactly $2,638) k148 Game Studio
Deep Dark Space $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Just Making Games
Wolftown $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Portponky
Prison Gambit · EA $5.99 5 100% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Wolven Games
Vanova's Stories $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Madgik Yarn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.