Do I ship it?

Games › Social Deduction › Social Deduction + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Tabletop

Only 13 developers shipped a Tabletop Social Deduction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 3DMurderMystery TheAshenYou, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $21k, ×14 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 19 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $475 (still earning) → $7.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $21,649)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 26
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction, Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Strategy, Card Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dialogue Heavy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 279 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $600, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 19 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 25 announced
  4. + PuzzleLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 22 announced
  5. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $18k · 17 announced
  7. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  9. + Character CustomizationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  10. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition 2020 · $1.0M Paper Pirates 2020 · $45k 3DMurderMystery TheAshenYou 2026 · $22k Trust No Bunny 2023 · $20k Cheater's Table 2026 · EA · $14k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
Paper Pirates older $12.99 115 91% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Iteration Games
3DMurderMystery TheAshenYou $18.99 38 73% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,649) ぐだぐだぶとん
Trust No Bunny older $5.99 109 93% 3.3k $20k (exactly $19,587) Friendly Pixel, Inc.
Cheater's Table · EA $6.99 69 95% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Lagari
BUNKER: RED FLAG · EA $4.99 93 79% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,922) Red Flag Team
Dungeon Tells $7.99 32 75% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Ace Benoff
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Similo: The Card Game older $2.99 36 63% 1.1k $3.2k (exactly $3,229) Horrible Guild
Untrusted older $4.99 9 44% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) playuntrusted.com
Republic of Jungle $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Gerdoo Games
Feed The Gods $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) TedRed
NECHTO: Infection Protocol $2.99 6 50% 180 $538 (exactly $538) bigmeco, BigMeco Games
STAB! · EA $0.99 16 100% 480 $475 (exactly $475) mightyraccoon! Studios
UNKNOWN FACES · EA $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nerux Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.