Do I ship it?

GamesSocial DeductionSocial Deduction + Survival Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Horror Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Survival Horror

Only 14 developers shipped a Survival Horror Social Deduction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MIMESIS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×1680 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Survival Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $5.7k → $539k → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction + Survival Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Median $18k (exactly $18,413)
Top 25% $123k (exactly $122,979)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 25
Announced 17
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction, Survival Horror
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 12,710 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.8k, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.8k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 25 announced
  4. + PuzzleLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 22 announced
  5. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  6. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  11. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds61 devs · median $1.5k · 102 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
In Silence older $9.99 9,450 75% 284k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,165) Ravenhood Games
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
BACKROOMS: APPREHENSION $2.99 1,371 83% 41k $123k (exactly $122,979) DMNT Interactive
MISTERY $11.99 290 64% 8.7k $104k (exactly $104,313) Game Frontier
Sinister Night older $9.99 130 63% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,961) zstar
DreadHaunt $19.99 39 64% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Digital Happiness
Who's Next? $4.99 123 87% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) HellAssociation
Zombie Within older $9.99 21 66% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) NewGen
DON'T GET GOT · EA $4.99 38 47% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Bossa Studios
Ritual Night · EA $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Outfox Games
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.