Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Music-Based Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music-Based Procedural Generation game?

Music-Based Procedural Generation

Of 107 developers who shipped a Music-Based Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 151 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×349 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 151 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 151 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Music-Based Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 107
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.6k → $1.3k → $899 → $657 → $1.0k → $839 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Music-Based Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 107
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $166k (exactly $165,822)
Developers, 2 yr 107
Released games 372
Announced 151
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Music-Based Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Music-Based Procedural Generation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 13,262 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 151 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Music-Based Procedural Generation

26 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Character Customization + Music-Based Procedural Generation Fair $18k 10 devs
  2. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Rhythm Long shot $300 72 devs
  3. Level Editor + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.7k 10 devs
  4. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 12 devs
  5. Adventure + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.2k 21 devs
  6. Exploration + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.1k 11 devs
  7. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Roguelike Poor odds $1.0k 15 devs
  8. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Platformer Poor odds $1.0k 8 devs
  9. Physics + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $899 14 devs
  10. Action Roguelike + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $839 14 devs
  11. Action + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $657 52 devs
  12. Simulation + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $657 25 devs
  13. Combat + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $657 10 devs
  14. Shooter + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $657 9 devs
  15. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Bullet Hell Poor odds $358 20 devs
  16. Sandbox + Music-Based Procedural Generation Poor odds $299 9 devs
  17. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Procedural Generation Poor odds $269 18 devs
  18. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Roguelite Poor odds $239 16 devs
  19. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Shoot 'Em Up Dead $4.5k 7 devs
  20. FPS + Music-Based Procedural Generation Dead $1.6k 7 devs
  21. 3D Platformer + Music-Based Procedural Generation Dead $1.0k 8 devs
  22. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Runner Dead $809 7 devs
  23. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Arcade Dead $358 40 devs
  24. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Score Attack Dead $300 18 devs
  25. Sports + Music-Based Procedural Generation Dead $300 4 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Music-Based Procedural Generation Dead $148 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Beat Saber 2019 · $42M EZ2ON REBOOT : R 2022 · $8.1M Rift of the NecroDancer 2025 · $3.5M Melatonin 2022 · $3.4M Enigma of Fear 2024 · $2.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
Melatonin older $14.99 7,554 94% 227k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,034) Half Asleep
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
AudioSurf older $9.99 8,901 95% 267k $2.7M (exactly $2,667,630) Dylan Fitterer
Audiosurf 2 older $14.99 5,364 82% 161k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,191) Dylan Fitterer
APE OUT older $14.99 3,733 94% 112k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,730) Gabe Cuzzillo, Bennett Foddy, Maxi Boch
Audioshield older $19.99 2,626 80% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,574,812) Dylan Fitterer
Beat Hazard older $9.99 5,072 95% 152k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,078) Cold Beam Games
PUMP IT UP RISE $44.99 777 80% 23k $1.0M (exactly $1,048,717) ANDAMIRO
Rhythia · EA $3.99 2,029 83% 61k $243k (exactly $242,871) Capo Games
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
OFFBEAT · EA $11.99 461 97% 14k $166k (exactly $165,822) Whetstone Games
Melody's Escape 2 $14.99 284 95% 8.5k $128k (exactly $127,715) Icetesy
O2Jam : The Beginning · EA $17.99 120 50% 3.6k $65k (exactly $64,764) SuperTurbine Technology Inc.
Steel Century Groove $19.99 98 94% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) Sloth Gloss Games
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.