Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Music-Based Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music-Based Procedural Generation Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Music-Based Procedural Generation

Only 11 developers shipped a Music-Based Procedural Generation Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rock Star Life Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 112780% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Music-Based Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $657 → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Music-Based Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $148 (exactly $148)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,187)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,601)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 28
Announced 12
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Music-Based Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Music-Based Procedural Generation
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 91% positive over 1,022 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
OFFBEAT · EA $11.99 461 97% 14k $166k (exactly $165,822) Whetstone Games
Dance Eden $19.99 42 85% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) DigiEden
Hardrock Sex 3D older $6.99 93 47% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,502) Pirates Of The Digital Sea
Overture Music Visualization older $3.99 45 71% 1.4k $5.4k (exactly $5,386) n/a
回忆画册~MemoriesAlbum~ older $4.99 15 40% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) RubyHaruSoftware
Periphery Synthetic older $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) shiftBacktick
Isolationist Nightclub Simulator older $1.99 14 64% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Edwin Montgomery, Myshkin Entertainment
EDM Ballistics $1.99 11 100% 330 $657 (exactly $657) MindFlow
Synth Laser $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Sarah Noor
SongSurfer $0.99 5 80% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Luftmensch
Daydreams $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) QuadraTron Games, Brotherly
Musicrab $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) William Wilkins
Gliss $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Indie Terminate Forms
MiM: Meditation Interactive Matrix $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) In Stereo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.