Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Music-Based Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music-Based Procedural Generation Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Music-Based Procedural Generation

Only 14 developers shipped a Music-Based Procedural Generation Action Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kill The Music, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $31k, ×67 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Music-Based Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $150 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Music-Based Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $31,768)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 25
Announced 14
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Music-Based Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Music-Based Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Rhythm
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 255 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $840, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ira 2023 · $84k City of Beats 2023 · $42k Kill The Music 2025 · $32k Rhythm Storm 2025 · $26k Temp Zero 2022 · $23k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ira older $19.99 140 75% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) ABShot
City of Beats older $19.99 70 85% 2.1k $42k (exactly $41,979) Torched Hill
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
Temp Zero older $4.99 156 94% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) Alexandre Kadri, Paul Hebbinckuys
Sigma Impact older $4.99 91 96% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) John Bishop
Tied to the Beat · EA $4.99 21 100% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Javier Lianes García
Symphorix · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) OnTriggerJoy
QUICKERFLAK_RUTHLESSMOD older $0.99 72 88% 2.2k $2.1k (exactly $2,138) Walter Machado
String Theory $13.99 5 100% 150 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) ZHANGHAILONG
Carnival Survivors The Parade $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Enchant Games
BeatHero $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Rainboar Studios
Big Buck Backshots $1.99 11 100% 330 $657 (exactly $657) Hilltop Games
TOWERPULSE $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) HAT Media
Dead Beats Survivors $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) 1st-impact co.,ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.