Do I ship it?

Games › Music-Based Procedural Generation › Music-Based Procedural Generation + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music-Based Procedural Generation Roguelike?

Music-Based Procedural Generation + Roguelike

Only 15 developers shipped a Music-Based Procedural Generation Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kill The Music, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $31k, ×67 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 18 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Music-Based Procedural Generation + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $180 (still earning) → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Music-Based Procedural Generation + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $31,768)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 26
Announced 18
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Music-Based Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Music-Based Procedural Generation, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 391 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Music-Based Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair10 devs · median $18k · 8 announced
  2. + FantasyFair8 devs · median $1.0k · 9 announced
  3. + MusicFair44 devs · median $809 · 65 announced
  4. + RhythmLong shot72 devs · median $300 · 90 announced
  5. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $5.7k · 14 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds12 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds21 devs · median $1.2k · 28 announced
  8. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds11 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + ExplorationPoor odds11 devs · median $1.1k · 25 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds8 devs · median $1.0k · 16 announced
  11. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  12. + Action RoguelikePoor odds14 devs · median $839 · 14 announced

All 32 pairs on the Music-Based Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Beat Hazard 3 2024 · $351k Ira 2023 · $84k City of Beats 2023 · $42k Kill The Music 2025 · $32k KAZ 2026 · $30k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Ira older $19.99 140 75% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) ABShot
City of Beats older $19.99 70 85% 2.1k $42k (exactly $41,979) Torched Hill
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
KAZ $6.99 143 94% 4.3k $30k (exactly $29,987) Kalinarm
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
Temp Zero older $4.99 156 94% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) Alexandre Kadri, Paul Hebbinckuys
Rhythm Stones · EA older $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) MELOVITY
Tied to the Beat · EA $4.99 21 100% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Javier Lianes García
Monster Path $5.99 16 75% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) The Indie Accord
The Cascadier · EA $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Enchanted Arcade
Ô · EA $8.99 4 100% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Morphal
Carnival Survivors The Parade $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Enchant Games
Final Forge · EA $2.99 3 33% 90 $269 (exactly $269) OPS Game Studio
TheMute $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) 大飞, Soundspak

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.