Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Music-Based Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Music-Based Procedural Generation game?

Combat + Music-Based Procedural Generation

Only 10 developers shipped a Combat Music-Based Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Enigma of Fear, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4362 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Music-Based Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Combat + Music-Based Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,549)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 11
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Music-Based Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Music-Based Procedural Generation
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 95% positive over 3,339 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $660, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
QUICKERFLAK older $4.99 2,819 87% 85k $422k (exactly $422,004) Walter Machado
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
TERRORHYTHM (TRRT) - Rhythm driven action beat 'em up! older $19.99 47 72% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) EvilCoGames
Temp Zero older $4.99 156 94% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) Alexandre Kadri, Paul Hebbinckuys
Sigma Impact older $4.99 91 96% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) John Bishop
Pulse Codex EP older $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) nonmateria
QUICKERFLAK_RUTHLESSMOD older $0.99 72 88% 2.2k $2.1k (exactly $2,138) Walter Machado
BeatHero $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Rainboar Studios
Big Buck Backshots $1.99 11 100% 330 $657 (exactly $657) Hilltop Games
A.K.O - Arrow Keys Only $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) adarkfable
Info Fighter $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Paulean
San Yin · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) XingYan
Harmonic Convergence $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Elsebound Productions
BEATSHIFT ARENA · EA $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bondigi Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.