Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure game?

Adventure

Of 12,612 developers who shipped an Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24,060 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×820 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 24,060 games are announced against 7,284 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 24,060 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12,612
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $2.2k → $2.1k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $1.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12,612
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $389,310)
Developers, 2 yr 12,612
Released games 52,710
Announced 24,060
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.59

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure
Price point
$6.59 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.59.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,459,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8,016 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24,060 games are announced against 7,284 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Adventure

80 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Adventure + Underwater Poor odds $1.7k 137 devs
  2. Adventure + Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 2,748 devs
  3. Adventure + Mystery Poor odds $1.6k 2,701 devs
  4. Adventure + Psychological Poor odds $1.6k 1,029 devs
  5. Adventure + Cats Poor odds $1.6k 280 devs
  6. Adventure + Horror Poor odds $1.6k 3,260 devs
  7. Adventure + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 1,059 devs
  8. Adventure + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $1.6k 325 devs
  9. Adventure + War Poor odds $1.5k 170 devs
  10. Adventure + Ninja Poor odds $1.5k 63 devs
  11. Adventure + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 288 devs
  12. Adventure + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 230 devs
  13. Adventure + Demons Poor odds $1.4k 574 devs
  14. Adventure + Pirates Poor odds $1.4k 123 devs
  15. Adventure + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.3k 292 devs
  16. Adventure + Assassins Poor odds $1.3k 80 devs
  17. Adventure + Medieval Poor odds $1.3k 888 devs
  18. Adventure + Zombies Poor odds $1.3k 549 devs
  19. Adventure + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.3k 1,504 devs
  20. Adventure + Underground Poor odds $1.3k 218 devs
  21. Adventure + Snow Poor odds $1.3k 88 devs
  22. Adventure + Futuristic Poor odds $1.0k 647 devs
  23. Adventure + Nature Poor odds $899 808 devs
  24. Adventure + Space Poor odds $899 609 devs
  25. Adventure + Faith Poor odds $897 116 devs
  26. Adventure + Mars Poor odds $748 31 devs
  27. Adventure + Aliens Poor odds $719 375 devs
  28. Adventure + Military Poor odds $599 153 devs
  29. Adventure + Dwarves Poor odds $449 23 devs
  30. Adventure + Based On A Novel Dead $1.3k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.