Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Adventure game?

Adventure + Medieval

Of 888 developers who shipped a Medieval Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,716 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×779 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 1,716 games are announced against 503 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 1,716 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 888
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $1.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 888
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,581)
Top 5% $370k (exactly $370,028)
Developers, 2 yr 888
Released games 2,726
Announced 1,716
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 421,286 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 469 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,716 games are announced against 503 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
Kingdom Come: Deliverance older $29.99 143,303 83% 4.3M $129M (exactly $128,929,709) Warhorse Studios
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin older $39.99 83,722 84% 2.5M $100M (exactly $100,441,283) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.