Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Adventure game?

Adventure + Nature

Of 808 developers who shipped a Nature Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,713 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×832 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 1,713 games are announced against 451 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 1,713 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 808
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.1k → $1.0k → $838 → $748 → $899 → $1.2k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 808
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Top 5% $395k (exactly $395,092)
Developers, 2 yr 808
Released games 2,359
Announced 1,713
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 147,243 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 464 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,713 games are announced against 451 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Neva $19.99 9,343 93% 280k $5.6M (exactly $5,602,997) Nomada Studio
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
My Little Puppy $24.99 4,435 97% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,920) Dreamotion Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.