Games › Adventure › Adventure + War
Should I ship a War Adventure game?
Adventure + War
Of 170 developers who shipped a War Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 373 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×856 the market median. Revenue is up 265% on the market; 373 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,327) |
| Top 5% | $538k (exactly $537,841) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 170 |
| Released games | 844 |
| Announced | 373 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 265% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Adventure; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 41,266 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 373 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
| | Sniper Elite 4 | older | $59.99 | 54,258 91% | 1.6M | $98M (exactly $97,648,123) | Rebellion |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Company of Heroes 2 | older | $19.99 | 68,909 80% | 2.1M | $41M (exactly $41,324,727) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Ravenfield | · EA older | $17.99 | 76,492 96% | 2.3M | $41M (exactly $41,282,732) | SteelRaven7 |
| | Pizza Tower | older | $19.99 | 66,350 98% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $39,790,095) | Tour De Pizza |
| | Insurgency | older | $14.99 | 86,314 91% | 2.6M | $39M (exactly $38,815,406) | New World Interactive |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER | $49.99 | 13,554 82% | 407k | $20M (exactly $20,326,934) | KONAMI | |
| | Sniper Elite: Resistance | $49.99 | 4,825 75% | 145k | $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) | Rebellion | |
| | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
| | Songs of Silence | $29.99 | 2,367 79% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) | Chimera Entertainment | |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version | $29.99 | 2,315 96% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) | KONAMI | |
| | Wild Assault | $14.99 | 3,861 68% | 116k | $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) | Combat Cat Studio | |
| | Three Kingdoms Mushouden | $24.99 | 1,876 72% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) | NanBei Studio | |
| | Crown and Adventure | $19.99 | 1,693 61% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) | C3D Games | |
| | Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! | $24.99 | 1,352 92% | 41k | $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) | Auroch Digital | |
| | FrostBound | $14.99 | 1,196 82% | 36k | $538k (exactly $537,841) | Lyra Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.