Should I ship a Magic 4X?
4X + Magic
Only 8 developers shipped a Magic 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Elemental: Reforged, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×8.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $13k against a market of $1.5k. 26 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $3.4k (exactly $3,418) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $12,529) |
| Top 25% | $100k (exactly $99,697) |
| Top 5% | $430k (exactly $430,057) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $18.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X
- Price point
- $18.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 54,335 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.5k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Songs of Conquest 2024 · $11M 
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith 2017 · $2.3M 
Conquest of Elysium 5 2021 · $1.7M 
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes 2013 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Songs of Conquest | older | $29.99 | 12,127 85% | 364k | $11M (exactly $10,910,662) | Lavapotion |
| | Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith | older | $39.99 | 1,924 94% | 58k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) | Illwinter Game Design |
| | Conquest of Elysium 5 | older | $29.99 | 1,872 90% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) | Illwinter Game Design |
| | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Eador. Masters of the Broken World | older | $19.99 | 1,660 67% | 50k | $996k (exactly $995,502) | Snowbird Games |
 | Warlock - Master of the Arcane | older | $24.99 | 1,003 86% | 30k | $752k (exactly $751,949) | Ino-Co Plus |
 | Warlock 2: The Exiled | older | $19.99 | 1,002 69% | 30k | $601k (exactly $600,899) | Ino-Co Plus |
 | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
 | Conquest of Elysium 4 | older | $24.99 | 509 89% | 15k | $382k (exactly $381,597) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Atre: Dominance Wars | · EA | $24.99 | 34 67% | 1.0k | $25k (exactly $25,490) | Ironward |
 | Wizard Warfare 2: Cephalopod Wars | $10.99 | 38 86% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,529) | Psyanotek Limited | |
 | Master of Luna | · EA | $14.99 | 22 95% | 660 | $9.9k (exactly $9,893) | Aleksandr Tiupin |
 | Thule | $18.99 | 6 50% | 180 | $3.4k (exactly $3,418) | Xeaker | |
 | Distant Flux: System Initializing | · EA | $16.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $2.0k (exactly $2,039) | Distant Flux Games, LLC |
 | Elemental Empire | $9.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | WizardingGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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