Should I ship a War 4X?
4X + War
Of 60 developers who shipped a War 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×15418 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 107 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.4k (exactly $1,436) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 25% | $90k (exactly $90,210) |
| Top 5% | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 60 |
| Released games | 214 |
| Announced | 107 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Simulation
- Price point
- $13.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 106,873 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
 | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
 | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Songs of Silence | $29.99 | 2,367 79% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) | Chimera Entertainment | |
 | Ultimate General: American Revolution | $49.99 | 917 51% | 28k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) | Game-Labs | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
 | Mandate Order | · EA | $19.99 | 1,110 81% | 33k | $666k (exactly $665,667) | Digital Sky |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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