Should I ship a Sci-fi 4X?
4X + Sci-fi
Of 41 developers who shipped a Sci-fi 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×544 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 104 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $23,740) |
| Top 5% | $816k (exactly $815,617) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 182 |
| Announced | 104 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Management
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 12,540 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack 2010 · $22M 
ENDLESS Space™ 2 2017 · $21M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack | older | $19.99 | 36,153 97% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,680,954) | Petroglyph |
| | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Homeworld Remastered Collection | older | $34.99 | 11,977 87% | 359k | $13M (exactly $12,572,257) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac) |
 | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Solargene | $34.99 | 777 77% | 23k | $816k (exactly $815,617) | Alexander Semenov | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond | $24.99 | 253 39% | 7.6k | $190k (exactly $189,674) | Jujubee | |
 | Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced | $9.99 | 174 95% | 5.2k | $52k (exactly $52,148) | Holistic Design, Inc. | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Solar Wave | · EA | $17.99 | 80 75% | 2.4k | $43k (exactly $43,176) | SavGus Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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