Should I ship a Futuristic 4X?
4X + Futuristic
Only 19 developers shipped a Futuristic 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Solargene, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×544 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,287) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $23,927) |
| Top 5% | $816k (exactly $815,617) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 74 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Futuristic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Economy
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,868 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M 
Homeworld Remastered Collection 2015 · $13M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M 
Anno 2205™ 2015 · $7.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Homeworld Remastered Collection | older | $34.99 | 11,977 87% | 359k | $13M (exactly $12,572,257) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac) |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Anno 2205™ | older | $39.99 | 6,115 70% | 183k | $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) | Blue Byte |
 | Anno 2070™ | older | $19.99 | 11,571 59% | 347k | $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) | Blue Byte, Related Designs |
 | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Galactic Civilizations IV | older | $39.99 | 2,207 72% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition | older | $9.99 | 6,626 79% | 199k | $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Industries of Titan | older | $29.99 | 1,553 61% | 47k | $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) | Brace Yourself Games |
 | Solargene | $34.99 | 777 77% | 23k | $816k (exactly $815,617) | Alexander Semenov | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced | $9.99 | 174 95% | 5.2k | $52k (exactly $52,148) | Holistic Design, Inc. | |
 | Solar Wave | · EA | $17.99 | 80 75% | 2.4k | $43k (exactly $43,176) | SavGus Studio |
 | Powerplay | · EA | $18.99 | 42 85% | 1.3k | $24k (exactly $23,927) | Frantic |
 | Stellar Reach | $19.99 | 34 79% | 1.0k | $20k (exactly $20,390) | Stelleas | |
 | Hyper Empire | $11.99 | 46 78% | 1.4k | $17k (exactly $16,546) | Fair Weather Studios | |
 | Galactum Meridian | · EA | $19.99 | 14 14% | 420 | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) | Hedra Games |
 | Periphery Online | $4.99 | 50 72% | 1.5k | $7.5k (exactly $7,485) | Aleksandr Nagaev | |
 | Aeons of Rebirth | $4.99 | 42 66% | 1.3k | $6.3k (exactly $6,287) | Short Scale |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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