Should I ship a Military 4X?
4X + Military
Of 46 developers who shipped a Military 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $20k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7253 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 69 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
|---|---|
| Median | $20k (exactly $20,390) |
| Top 25% | $190k (exactly $189,674) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 46 |
| Released games | 134 |
| Announced | 69 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Grand Strategy, Strategy, Simulation
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 63% positive over 81,903 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M 
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition 2006 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
| | Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 27,319 95% | 820k | $16M (exactly $16,383,204) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
 | Old World | older | $39.99 | 6,002 82% | 180k | $7.2M (exactly $7,200,599) | Mohawk Games |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion | older | $19.99 | 10,243 93% | 307k | $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Airships: Conquer the Skies | older | $24.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) | David Stark |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | Ultimate General: American Revolution | $49.99 | 917 51% | 28k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) | Game-Labs | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
 | Mandate Order | · EA | $19.99 | 1,110 81% | 33k | $666k (exactly $665,667) | Digital Sky |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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