Should I ship a Fantasy 4X?
4X + Fantasy
Of 28 developers who shipped a Fantasy 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $13k, ×8.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×976 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 68 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.3k (exactly $2,338) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $12,529) |
| Top 25% | $314k (exactly $314,048) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 28 |
| Released games | 115 |
| Announced | 68 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Exploration, RPG
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 9,497 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
ENDLESS Legend™ 2014 · $13M 
Songs of Conquest 2024 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Songs of Conquest | older | $29.99 | 12,127 85% | 364k | $11M (exactly $10,910,662) | Lavapotion |
 | Songs of Syx | · EA older | $24.99 | 8,842 94% | 265k | $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) | Gamatron AB |
 | Age of Wonders III | older | $29.99 | 7,020 81% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) | Triumph Studios |
 | Hero's Hour | older | $17.99 | 4,643 79% | 139k | $2.5M (exactly $2,505,827) | Benjamin "ThingOnItsOwn" Hauer |
 | Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith | older | $39.99 | 1,924 94% | 58k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator | older | $44.99 | 1,686 90% | 51k | $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Songs of Silence | $29.99 | 2,367 79% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) | Chimera Entertainment | |
 | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
 | Duel Corp. | · EA | $24.99 | 1,251 71% | 38k | $938k (exactly $937,875) | Dreameffect Entertainment |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
 | Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown | $27.99 | 374 54% | 11k | $314k (exactly $314,048) | Zugalu Entertainment | |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | TOHOTOPIA | · EA | $3.99 | 732 97% | 22k | $88k (exactly $87,620) | Remilia Command |
 | Shields of Loyalty | $19.99 | 140 77% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Mosaic Mask Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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