Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Vehicular Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vehicular Combat Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Vehicular Combat

Of 42 developers who shipped a Vehicular Combat Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 120 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 120 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Vehicular Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $897 → $1.2k → $178 → $1.9k → $128k → $598 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Vehicular Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,287)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $761,019)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 147
Announced 120
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Vehicular Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Vehicular Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 10,795 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $810, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
STAR WARS™ Battlefront older $19.99 5,190 79% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,112,443) DICE
SAND LAND older $59.99 1,018 86% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) ILCA, Inc.
Panzer Knights older $24.99 1,896 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,421,431) 樂磚Joy Brick
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
PATLABOR the Case Files $34.99 47 65% 1.4k $49k (exactly $49,336) Chime
POLARIS™ $19.99 32 59% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) POLARIS™ Team, Variable State
Ultra Cop $1.99 195 89% 5.9k $12k (exactly $11,642) JG Roos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.