Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Tower Defense

Of 36 developers who shipped a Tower Defense Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $340 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 46 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $17k → $299 → $1.2k → $719 → $599 → $30 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,880)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 103
Announced 46
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Tower Defense; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Base Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 7,099 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Plants vs. Zombies: Battle for Neighborville™ older $29.99 15,372 71% 461k $14M (exactly $13,830,188) PopCap
Orcs Must Die! 3 older $29.99 10,930 85% 328k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,721) Robot Entertainment
Orcs Must Die! 2 older $14.99 12,924 92% 388k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,923) Robot Entertainment
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
HYPERCHARGE: Unboxed older $24.99 3,798 90% 114k $2.8M (exactly $2,847,361) Digital Cybercherries
Orcs Must Die! older $9.99 6,663 95% 200k $2.0M (exactly $1,996,901) Robot Entertainment
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
Iron Brigade older $14.99 909 86% 27k $409k (exactly $408,777) Double Fine Productions
Home Wars older $9.99 1,141 78% 34k $342k (exactly $341,958) Insane Dreamers
Attack on Toys · EA older $6.99 1,158 93% 35k $243k (exactly $242,833) N7T-GAMES
Block Fortress 2 $19.99 264 81% 7.9k $158k (exactly $158,321) Foursaken Media
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
World Crafter TD $14.99 70 48% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) Tbjbu2
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
宗门最后的长老 $2.99 99 96% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) KUMA studio
Puropu Defense Squad $9.99 28 57% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) PlayTogether Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.