Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Tanks

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tanks Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Tanks

Of 22 developers who shipped a Tanks Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 44 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 350% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Tanks
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89 → $1.3k → $5.3k → $299 → $3.6k → $598 (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Tanks: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,633)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $128,449)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 100
Announced 44
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Tanks
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Tanks; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Action RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 17,190 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version older $19.99 5,403 89% 162k $3.2M (exactly $3,240,179) KONAMI
METAL GEAR SOLID - Master Collection Version older $19.99 4,283 84% 128k $2.6M (exactly $2,568,515) KONAMI
METAL GEAR SOLID 2: Sons of Liberty - Master Collection Version older $19.99 3,493 89% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,094,752) KONAMI
METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version $29.99 2,315 96% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) KONAMI
SAND LAND older $59.99 1,018 86% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) ILCA, Inc.
Panzer Knights older $24.99 1,896 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,421,431) 樂磚Joy Brick
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
CUSTOM MECH WARS older $49.99 563 41% 17k $844k (exactly $844,331) D3PUBLISHER
METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version $19.99 925 79% 28k $555k (exactly $554,722) KONAMI
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 $49.99 49 65% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) KONAMI
Tactical Warfare $9.99 52 67% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mizrab
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games
Bridge Hunter · EA $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Double Light
TONK · EA $3.99 22 77% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) YourAverageOtter
Tanks 3D $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) yp3d

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.