Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Swordplay

Only 14 developers shipped a Swordplay Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59 → $119 → $2.6k → $30 → $449
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $126 (exactly $126)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,880)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 41
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,527 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $130, median $450, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $130. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream 2024 · $3.6M STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ 2009 · $3.4M Wanted: Dead 2023 · $1.2M STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™ 2009 · $1.2M Yasuke Simulator 2025 · $404k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ older $9.99 11,290 96% 339k $3.4M (exactly $3,383,613) Raven Software
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™ older $9.99 4,048 91% 121k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,186) Raven Software
Yasuke Simulator $6.99 1,925 97% 58k $404k (exactly $403,672) HistoryAccurateDevelopers
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Knights Within · EA older $17.99 250 95% 7.5k $135k (exactly $134,925) Indecision Labs
Daggan older $9.99 97 79% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Malerouille
Valand older $7.99 54 59% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,944) LOMS Studio
宗门最后的长老 $2.99 99 96% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) KUMA studio
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
DAMex : DArk Matter Exodus $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Benoit Locu
Pixel Troopers · EA $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liberator Studios
No One's Island · EA $0.99 6 100% 180 $178 (exactly $178) Rinthis Arathis
Samurai Fighters Together $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) cnsgames
ShoJinDen $4.20 1 100% 30 $126 (exactly $126) EigetsuGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.