Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Survival

Of 176 developers who shipped a Survival Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 411 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 411 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 25% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 411 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 176
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $1.8k → $449 → $1.2k → $539 → $1.2k → $598 (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 176
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,440)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609)
Developers, 2 yr 176
Released games 618
Announced 411
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,008,574 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 411 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Resident Evil 4 older $39.99 186,701 97% 5.6M $224M (exactly $223,985,190) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.