Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Strategy

Of 122 developers who shipped a Strategy Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 216 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 61 developers shipped in the last year and 216 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 216 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $772 → $899 → $299 → $598 → $449 → $210 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,479)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 448
Announced 216
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Strategy; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 5,905 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 216 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Hitman: Absolution™ older $19.99 49,637 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,767,309) Io-Interactive A/S
Watch_Dogs™ older $19.99 49,193 79% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,501,042) Ubisoft
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
STAR WARS™ Battlefront II (Classic, 2005) older $9.99 46,403 94% 1.4M $14M (exactly $13,906,979) Pandemic Studios
Plants vs. Zombies: Battle for Neighborville™ older $29.99 15,372 71% 461k $14M (exactly $13,830,188) PopCap
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Pandora Tomorrow $9.99 612 75% 18k $183k (exactly $183,416) Ubisoft
Block Fortress 2 $19.99 264 81% 7.9k $158k (exactly $158,321) Foursaken Media
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
World Crafter TD $14.99 70 48% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) Tbjbu2
Supercat Survivors $6.99 142 80% 4.3k $30k (exactly $29,777) Happy Universe Studios
Polygon Bit Battle Royale $9.99 93 60% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Army Troop Studios
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.