Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Sports

Of 24 developers who shipped a Sports Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $4.2k → $18k → $0 → $52k → $299 → $449 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 104
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Sports; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Online Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 43,339 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $720, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

REMATCH 2025 · $36M MindsEye 2025 · $3.0M Rollerdrome 2022 · $1.3M Monday Night Combat 2011 · $137k Motordoom 2024 · $73k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
Monday Night Combat older $4.99 912 81% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) Uber Entertainment
Motordoom older $13.99 174 94% 5.2k $73k (exactly $73,028) Hobo Cat Games
Fight Crab 2 · EA older $14.99 128 92% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Calappa Games
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Cyber Avenger older $12.99 131 87% 3.9k $51k (exactly $51,051) Quacky Games
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal
Zombodesert older $49.99 12 91% 360 $18k (exactly $17,996) Gamesforgames
Third Person Basketball Court · EA $6.99 67 86% 2.0k $14k (exactly $14,050) kuroki-gaming
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Skuf vs beer bottle party $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN MEME WAR $0.99 45 97% 1.4k $1.3k (exactly $1,336) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
Recess $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Lost Echoes Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.