Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Twin Stick Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Twin Stick Shooter Simulation game?

Simulation + Twin Stick Shooter

Only 14 developers shipped a Twin Stick Shooter Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mech Havoc, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Twin Stick Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $4.2k → $599 → $479
Outcomes for Simulation + Twin Stick Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,216)
Top 5% $244k (exactly $243,656)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 43
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Twin Stick Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Twin Stick Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
CPU Invaders older $29.99 496 86% 15k $446k (exactly $446,251) Microblast Games
Maniac older $4.99 1,754 90% 53k $263k (exactly $262,574) Transhuman Design
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Gigantes Ex Machina · EA $14.99 300 84% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) AcrylByte, SEO INSEOK
Guns'n'Stories: Bulletproof VR older $9.99 387 87% 12k $116k (exactly $115,984) MIROWIN
AHEGAL older $1.99 1,165 88% 35k $70k (exactly $69,550) OppaiMan 2D
Slimekeep $14.99 109 87% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) BenBonk
Cam Op Simulator older $39.99 18 83% 540 $22k (exactly $21,595) Matt Workman
A.I. Invasion older $9.99 29 20% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) GameArt Studio GmbH
Hotloop $2.99 47 85% 1.4k $4.2k (exactly $4,216) Tntlaxy GDS
Furball Over the Front $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Page Blue House
雷霆之眼 $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) 小如文化
Arcade Architect $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Drew VanWagner
AstroDig $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Only4Gamers
Soviet Tide Arising! $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Page Blue House
Void Breaker $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) AA Mini Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.