Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Simulation game?

Simulation + Transportation

Of 175 developers who shipped a Transportation Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 277 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×9.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3339 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 277 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 277 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 175
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $21k → $5.8k → $3.4k → $12k → $5.7k → $5.7k (still earning) → $4.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 175
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,738)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151)
Developers, 2 yr 175
Released games 484
Announced 277
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Transportation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Exploration, Driving
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 81,061 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 78 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 277 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.