Do I ship it?

Games › Simulation › Simulation + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Simulation game?

Simulation + Traditional Roguelike

Of 38 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $58k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 38 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 38 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $599 → $718 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,691)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,926)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 54
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Traditional Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 690 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $630, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M The Doors of Trithius 2021 · EA · $438k Wayward 2016 · EA · $291k Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 2022 · $256k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
The Doors of Trithius · EA older $14.99 973 93% 29k $438k (exactly $437,558) Jake Donkersgoed
Wayward · EA older $7.99 1,213 86% 36k $291k (exactly $290,756) Unlok
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 older $24.99 342 89% 10k $256k (exactly $256,397) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Cataclysm: The Last Generation $6.99 281 89% 8.4k $59k (exactly $58,926) Worm Girl
Another Farm Roguelike older $2.99 449 81% 13k $40k (exactly $40,275) Zabbo Games
Indies' Lies 2: Fire Seed $14.99 73 67% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) Fun Square Games
Warlords Battle Simulator $9.99 55 67% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) RedKar Devs
TownsFolk $11.99 22 81% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Short Circuit Studios
Dorts : A Darts Roguelike $8.99 23 100% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) MovingPixels
CoinPit $6.99 24 66% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Trollix Games
TradingLife · EA $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Fun(ctor) Studio
Meow Tower - Doomsguard $9.99 12 41% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) maoyoufang
Blackjack Roulette $2.99 30 83% 900 $2.7k (exactly $2,691) DreamArk Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.