Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Simulation game?

Simulation + Top-Down Shooter

Of 77 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 47 developers shipped in the last year and 124 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 124 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $1.4k → $2.1k → $240 → $898 → $1.8k → $449 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 5% $244k (exactly $243,656)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 244
Announced 124
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,785 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Door Kickers older $19.99 8,041 94% 241k $4.8M (exactly $4,822,188) KillHouse Games
Police Stories older $19.99 7,893 85% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) HypeTrain Digital
Intravenous 2 older $19.99 4,069 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,179) Explosive Squat Games
Intravenous older $19.99 2,872 91% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,722,338) Explosive Squat Games
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
No Plan B older $14.99 761 86% 23k $342k (exactly $342,222) GFX47
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Gigantes Ex Machina · EA $14.99 300 84% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) AcrylByte, SEO INSEOK
Antivirus PROTOCOL $4.99 313 87% 9.4k $47k (exactly $46,856) FIREHIVE Studio
Antivirus Girl $7.99 169 88% 5.1k $41k (exactly $40,509) Chowbie
FALL $4.99 153 88% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) 谭浩翔
INSANIO $9.99 48 66% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) somebody

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.