Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Tanks

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tanks Simulation game?

Simulation + Tanks

Of 35 developers who shipped a Tanks Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2761 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 56 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Tanks
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.1k → $2.7k → $3.2k → $8.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Tanks: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $64,789)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 208
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tanks
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Tanks; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Wargame
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 14,579 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $64k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad older $49.99 8,749 79% 262k $13M (exactly $13,120,875) FOR-GAMES CR LTD
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Company of Heroes - Legacy Edition older $36.99 4,831 92% 145k $5.4M (exactly $5,360,961) Relic Entertainment
Tank Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 8,792 87% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,272,562) DeGenerals S.A.
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
Sherman Commander $29.99 117 64% 3.5k $105k (exactly $105,265) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Frontline: Assault Corps WW2 $14.99 33 75% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Frontline: Games Series

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.