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Should I ship a Tactical RPG Simulation game?
Simulation + Tactical RPG
Of 127 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 231 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1202 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 231 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) |
| Top 25% | $40k (exactly $39,580) |
| Top 5% | $755k (exactly $754,597) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 127 |
| Released games | 385 |
| Announced | 231 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Tactical RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Strategy RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 24,370 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 231 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
 | Kingdom Heroes 8 | older | $29.99 | 12,793 55% | 384k | $12M (exactly $11,509,862) | USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd. |
 | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
 | FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles | $49.99 | 5,673 89% | 170k | $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) | Square Enix | |
 | Tactics Ogre: Reborn | older | $49.99 | 4,049 72% | 121k | $6.1M (exactly $6,072,285) | Square Enix |
 | TRIANGLE STRATEGY | older | $59.99 | 3,239 78% | 97k | $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) | Square Enix, ARTDINK |
 | Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms | · EA | $19.99 | 6,652 88% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) | Free Wing |
 | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
 | Three Kingdoms Mushouden | $24.99 | 1,876 72% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) | NanBei Studio | |
 | The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily | $29.99 | 1,529 85% | 46k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) | Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground) | |
 | Dungeon Settlers | · EA | $24.99 | 1,117 79% | 34k | $837k (exactly $837,415) | CanOpener |
 | Cauldron | $14.99 | 1,678 92% | 50k | $755k (exactly $754,597) | SleepyDad Games | |
 | Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - | $34.99 | 582 98% | 17k | $611k (exactly $610,925) | さんぼん堂 | |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | BRIGANDINE ABYSS | $49.99 | 248 35% | 7.4k | $372k (exactly $371,926) | Adglobe |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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