Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Simulation game?

Simulation + Tabletop

Of 250 developers who shipped a Tabletop Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 263 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is flat on the market; 263 games are announced against 160 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 263 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 250
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $4.5k → $1.8k → $839 → $1.1k → $950 → $599 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 250
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,267)
Top 5% $258k (exactly $258,432)
Developers, 2 yr 250
Released games 790
Announced 263
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Card Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 91,545 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 119 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 263 games are announced against 160 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Stacklands older $7.99 29,244 96% 877k $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) Sokpop Collective
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Stripjong - Super Real Mahjong Venus Returns $29.99 740 80% 22k $666k (exactly $665,778) ILLUMINATION
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Walk of Life $19.99 888 94% 27k $533k (exactly $532,534) Porcelain Fortress
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.