Games › Simulation › Simulation + Supernatural
Should I ship a Supernatural Simulation game?
Simulation + Supernatural
Of 256 developers who shipped a Supernatural Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 395 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×416 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 395 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $418 (exactly $418) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,090) |
| Top 5% | $261k (exactly $261,104) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 256 |
| Released games | 502 |
| Announced | 395 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Supernatural
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Walking Simulator
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 16,841 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 138 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 395 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Chernobylite Complete Edition 2021 · $11M 
The Mortuary Assistant 2022 · $5.4M 
PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo 2023 · $3.7M 
Spellcaster University 2021 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Chernobylite Complete Edition | older | $29.99 | 12,416 81% | 372k | $11M (exactly $11,170,675) | The Farm 51 |
| | The Mortuary Assistant | older | $24.99 | 7,269 92% | 218k | $5.4M (exactly $5,449,569) | DarkStone Digital |
| | PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo | older | $19.99 | 6,123 95% | 184k | $3.7M (exactly $3,671,963) | Square Enix |
| | Spellcaster University | older | $24.99 | 3,424 83% | 103k | $2.6M (exactly $2,566,973) | Sneaky Yak Studio |
 | Moonlight Peaks | $34.99 | 1,793 88% | 54k | $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) | Little Chicken | |
 | Wylde Flowers | older | $24.99 | 2,329 95% | 70k | $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) | Studio Drydock Pty Ltd |
 | PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse | $24.99 | 2,169 95% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) | Square Enix | |
 | Ghost Exorcism INC. | · EA older | $11.99 | 4,256 76% | 128k | $1.5M (exactly $1,530,883) | StudioGoupil |
 | Home Safety Hotline | older | $14.99 | 2,763 90% | 83k | $1.2M (exactly $1,242,521) | Night Signal Entertainment |
 | DON'T SCREAM | $7.99 | 4,505 65% | 135k | $1.1M (exactly $1,079,848) | Digital Cybercherries | |
 | Worshippers of Cthulhu | $24.99 | 1,305 80% | 39k | $978k (exactly $978,358) | Crazy Goat Games | |
 | DEAD LETTER DEPT. | $14.99 | 1,777 95% | 53k | $799k (exactly $799,117) | Mike Monroe, Belief Engine | |
 | HELLMART | $14.99 | 1,034 77% | 31k | $465k (exactly $464,990) | GAZE IN GAMES | |
 | 消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! | $19.99 | 602 89% | 18k | $361k (exactly $361,019) | Humongous Pictures | |
 | ORDER 13 | $8.99 | 1,224 87% | 37k | $330k (exactly $330,113) | Cybernetic Walrus | |
 | Dollmare | $4.99 | 2,045 94% | 61k | $306k (exactly $306,136) | Alex Grade, gonzeek, Oxeren | |
 | Night is Coming | · EA | $24.99 | 387 59% | 12k | $290k (exactly $290,134) | Wild Forest Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.