Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy Simulation game?

Simulation + Strategy

Of 2,725 developers who shipped a Strategy Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,582 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1060 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 4,582 games are announced against 1,785 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 4,582 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,725
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $4.7k → $4.1k → $2.5k → $2.9k → $3.0k → $2.3k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,725
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,372)
Top 5% $666k (exactly $665,867)
Developers, 2 yr 2,725
Released games 9,012
Announced 4,582
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Resource Management, Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 550,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 1,288 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,582 games are announced against 1,785 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Football Manager 26 $59.99 21,490 37% 645k $39M (exactly $38,675,553) Sports Interactive
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.