Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Split Screen

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Split Screen Simulation game?

Simulation + Split Screen

Of 44 developers who shipped a Split Screen Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $8.2M, ×13059 the market median. Revenue is up 1095% on the market; 58 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1095% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Split Screen
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $56k → $3.4k → $3.5k → $2.1k → $5.7k → $6.7k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Split Screen: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $165k (exactly $164,942)
Top 5% $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 193
Announced 58
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1095% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Split Screen
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Split Screen; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Local Multiplayer, Racing
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 83,588 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $8.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
DiRT Rally 2.0 older $19.99 39,091 89% 1.2M $23M (exactly $23,442,873) Codemasters
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
The Escapists 2 older $19.99 26,452 90% 794k $16M (exactly $15,863,264) Team17, Mouldy Toof Studios
Hydroneer older $14.99 27,131 85% 814k $12M (exactly $12,200,811) Foulball Hangover
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
PowerWash Simulator 2 $24.99 10,939 91% 328k $8.2M (exactly $8,200,968) FuturLab
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Old School Rally $12.99 2,142 89% 64k $835k (exactly $834,737) Frozen Lake Games
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
Cinnabunny $24.99 403 96% 12k $302k (exactly $302,129) Reky Studios
World of Outlaws: Dirt Racing 24 Gold Edition $39.99 243 89% 7.3k $292k (exactly $291,527) Monster Games, Amber

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.