Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Simulation game?

Simulation + Shop Keeper

Of 504 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 961 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×762 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 961 games are announced against 448 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 961 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 504
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $22k → $7.6k → $80k → $49k → $7.6k → $2.7k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 504
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $4.0k (exactly $3,953)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,373)
Top 5% $479k (exactly $478,552)
Developers, 2 yr 504
Released games 625
Announced 961
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 580% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Shop Keeper; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Life Sim, Economy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 113,796 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 5 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 961 games are announced against 448 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Retro Rewind - Video Store Simulator $19.90 10,118 95% 304k $6.0M (exactly $6,040,446) Blood Pact Studios
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
Grocery Store Simulator $14.99 5,337 90% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,400,049) EXPERIMENT ONE
King of Retail older $25.99 2,982 88% 89k $2.3M (exactly $2,325,065) Freaking Games
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.