Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 96 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 155 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 45 developers shipped in the last year and 155 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 155 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $899 → $300 → $299 → $599 → $210 → $60 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $65,206)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 340
Announced 155
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 4,515 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $65k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 155 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Gungrave G.O.R.E older $29.99 744 71% 22k $669k (exactly $669,377) Iggymob Co.,Ltd
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Mirage Feathers older $4.99 2,566 98% 77k $384k (exactly $384,130) oyasumi Workshop
Alien Breed: Impact older $9.99 1,055 78% 32k $316k (exactly $316,184) Team17 Software Ltd.
Warden's Will $14.99 304 70% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) ELYZIO
Thunder Wolves older $9.99 446 84% 13k $134k (exactly $133,666) Most Wanted Entertainment
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 4.1 WINGDIVER THE SHOOTER older $19.99 214 66% 6.4k $128k (exactly $128,336) Clouds
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
閃攻機人アスラ - ASURA THE STRIKER - $14.99 145 91% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) LeftOver
NIGHT STRIKER GEAR $18.99 94 88% 2.8k $54k (exactly $53,552) M2 Co., Ltd., M2 Co.,LTD
Project Tower $9.99 76 75% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Yummy Games
Candy Rangers $14.99 30 86% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Mechano
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
宗门最后的长老 $2.99 99 96% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) KUMA studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.