Do I ship it?

Games › Simulation › Simulation + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Simulation game?

Simulation + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 77 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×215 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 89 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 89 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $748 → $1.2k → $599 → $599 → $898 → $538 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 5% $135k (exactly $134,910)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 336
Announced 89
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 4,087 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HARD BULLET 2020 · EA · $3.5M Squirrel with a Gun 2024 · $1.9M Kill It With Fire 2020 · $1.6M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Disney•Pixar Cars 2015 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Disney•Pixar Cars older $19.99 1,940 89% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,418) Beenox
LUFTRAUSERS older $9.99 3,398 91% 102k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,381) Vlambeer
LEWDAPOCALYPSE Hentai Evil older $4.99 5,960 94% 179k $892k (exactly $892,212) KG/AM
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Gungrave G.O.R.E older $29.99 744 71% 22k $669k (exactly $669,377) Iggymob Co.,Ltd
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Gigantes Ex Machina · EA $14.99 300 84% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) AcrylByte, SEO INSEOK
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
Split Second VR Tactical Shooter · EA $9.99 49 38% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Robertson Gaming Studios
Aerial_Knight's DropShot $19.99 22 90% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Aerial_Knight
The Original Moorhuhn Hunt $2.99 140 97% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Soba's Gunpaw $2.99 130 93% 3.9k $12k (exactly $11,661) Evrac Studio
Zombie Liminal Fishing $13.99 21 85% 630 $8.8k (exactly $8,814) Chris Danelon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.