Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Sandbox
Should I ship a Sandbox Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Sandbox
Of 71 developers who shipped a Sandbox Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 164 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×4619 the market median. Revenue is up 485% on the market; 164 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,525) |
| Top 25% | $69k (exactly $68,609) |
| Top 5% | $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 71 |
| Released games | 252 |
| Announced | 164 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 485% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter, Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Shooter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 686,241 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 164 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
Comparable games
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
Palworld 2026 · $371M 
Arma 3 2013 · $206M 
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced 2025 · $190M 
Fallout 4 2015 · $174M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
| | Arma 3 | older | $29.99 | 228,910 90% | 6.9M | $206M (exactly $205,950,327) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
| | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands | older | $49.99 | 99,590 78% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,355,123) | Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade) |
 | Watch_Dogs® 2 | older | $49.99 | 95,242 82% | 2.9M | $143M (exactly $142,834,427) | Ubisoft |
 | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
 | Just Cause™ 3 | older | $19.99 | 104,140 85% | 3.1M | $62M (exactly $62,452,758) | Avalanche Studios |
 | HITMAN World of Assassination | older | $29.99 | 58,655 87% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $52,771,904) | IO Interactive A/S |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | VEIN | · EA | $19.99 | 11,539 87% | 346k | $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) | Ramjet Studios |
 | s&box | $9.99 | 5,118 46% | 154k | $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) | Facepunch Studios | |
 | Suit for Hire | $14.99 | 3,263 92% | 98k | $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) | Godmode Interactive | |
 | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
 | Dread Dawn | $19.99 | 2,113 71% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) | Kioop | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Killer Bean | · EA | $14.99 | 2,272 73% | 68k | $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) | Killer Bean Studios LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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