Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Runner

Only 12 developers shipped a Runner Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Maniac Path 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $60 against a market of $1.5k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 15 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $0 → $180
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 55
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Runner
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 88% positive over 76 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $3.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sex Apocalypse 2 older $9.99 195 55% 5.9k $58k (exactly $58,442) Octo Games
Zombodesert older $49.99 12 91% 360 $18k (exactly $17,996) Gamesforgames
《Drifting : Weight of Feathers》 older $11.99 48 72% 1.4k $17k (exactly $17,266) MING YEN WU
Agent Murphy older $4.99 47 72% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) xproject
AlCHeMoS older $11.99 14 100% 420 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) Hooting Banana Studios
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
War Of Gold older $4.99 16 62% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Rogue Runner $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 42nd Machine
Money Theft $4.99 13 76% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Hype Prototype older $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Constanta Games
HYPERJUSTICE older $4.99 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Jackson Clayton, Andy Sharpe, Liam A'He… (Jackson Clayton, Andy Sharpe, Liam A'Hearn, Zane Kidwell)
MEMOLOGY: ESCAPE OF MEMES $0.99 35 91% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel
Niut $3.00 2 50% 60 $180 (exactly $180) AF Works ®
Tung Tung Together: Online Deathrun Party · EA $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) DarkRook Interactive
AI Math Dash $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) AA Mini Games Studio
RETRO ROBOTS 2D $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Daniel Martínez Martínez-Pardo
Flappy Tank $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) PapaSmurfie, Ilia Chakarov, Damyan Chak… (PapaSmurfie, Ilia Chakarov, Damyan Chakarov)
Only Climber Venice $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Zombie Developer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.