Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Simulation game?

Simulation + Runner

Of 113 developers who shipped a Runner Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 57 developers shipped in the last year and 84 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 84 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $449 → $898 → $238 → $418 → $897 → $89 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,337)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 344
Announced 84
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Racing
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,550 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
Retrowave older $2.99 13,742 96% 412k $1.2M (exactly $1,232,657) RewindApp
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Climber Animals: Together older $3.99 6,014 73% 180k $720k (exactly $719,876) Devotion Interactive
Drift86 older $1.99 5,293 91% 159k $316k (exactly $315,992) RewindApp
Furry Killer older $29.99 241 78% 7.2k $217k (exactly $216,828) Sujikon
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Elypse older $9.99 297 71% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) Hot Chili Games
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
Rabbit Riot older $39.99 49 87% 1.5k $59k (exactly $58,785) Reactor Studios
Eggo $5.99 310 83% 9.3k $56k (exactly $55,707) 天赋一饼 Meme Crepe
Catch Me $5.99 178 70% 5.3k $32k (exactly $31,987) Doorway Games
Progress Racer RPG $5.99 133 94% 4.0k $24k (exactly $23,900) Cameron Ladjevardi, David Elliot
SuperSorry $5.99 115 74% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) Sun Studio
Ala Mobile $14.99 43 74% 1.3k $19k (exactly $19,337) CVi Games
Puppet Team $4.99 112 64% 3.4k $17k (exactly $16,766) Editmode
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Steal The Pig $4.99 74 85% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) BAA Games
Synthwave Driver · EA $2.99 107 86% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Runebox Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.