Do I ship it?

Games › Simulation › Simulation + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Simulation game?

Simulation + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 68 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×44 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1276 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 74 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 43.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 74 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3M → $212k → $7.4k → $72k → $56k → $17k → $27k (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Median $27k (exactly $27,432)
Top 25% $104k (exactly $104,011)
Top 5% $801k (exactly $801,199)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 99
Announced 74
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 14,758 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 4 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Luck be a Landlord 2023 · $3.1M Ratropolis 2020 · $2.8M Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M Take Me To The Dungeon!! 2023 · $1.3M Menace from the Deep 2024 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Luck be a Landlord older $9.99 10,213 93% 306k $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) TrampolineTales
Ratropolis older $17.99 5,187 87% 156k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,424) Cassel Games
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
Take Me To The Dungeon!! older $10.99 3,895 93% 117k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,182) Hanabi Fuusen
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Cardboard Town older $19.99 2,051 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Stratera Games, cukuto
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Aotenjo: Infinite Hands · EA $9.99 958 87% 29k $287k (exactly $287,113) XO Cat
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.