Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Roguelike

Of 83 developers who shipped a Roguelike Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 136 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 136 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $240 → $718 → $13k → $4.2k → $959 → $599 (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,179)
Top 5% $774k (exactly $773,613)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 178
Announced 136
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 113,952 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $960, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Risk of Rain 2 2020 · $180M Megabonk 2025 · $30M Returnal™ 2023 · $12M Crab Champions 2023 · EA · $8.0M LORT 2026 · EA · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
LORT · EA $14.99 3,933 77% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,670) Big Distraction
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Alien Shooter older $4.99 3,919 95% 118k $587k (exactly $586,674) Sigma Team Inc.
Dark Hunting Ground $12.99 771 92% 23k $300k (exactly $300,459) BingX
Atomic Picnic · EA $19.99 442 70% 13k $265k (exactly $265,067) BitCake Studio
The Bleakest Keep $9.99 719 90% 22k $215k (exactly $215,484) Cache of Bones
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.