Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Simulation game?

Simulation + Rhythm

Of 114 developers who shipped a Rhythm Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $980, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 585% on the market; 100 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 585% on the market, 100 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 114
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $60 → $538 → $897 → $178 → $4.1k → $1.6k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 114
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $980 (exactly $980)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,626)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,601)
Developers, 2 yr 114
Released games 353
Announced 100
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 585% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Rhythm; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 24,687 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $980, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY $9.99 15,615 85% 468k $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
PLATiNA :: LAB $19.99 1,780 50% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,466) HIGH-END Games
MUSYNX older $3.99 6,274 89% 188k $751k (exactly $750,998) I-Inferno
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
Beatblock · EA $14.99 1,237 97% 37k $556k (exactly $556,279) BubbleTabby
Paradiddle older $24.99 660 91% 20k $495k (exactly $494,802) Emre Tanirgan
Maestro $24.99 543 96% 16k $407k (exactly $407,087) Double Jack
Drums Rock older $19.99 402 88% 12k $241k (exactly $241,079) Garage51
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
MUSYNX:RETURN $19.99 284 74% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) I-Inferno
OFFBEAT · EA $11.99 461 97% 14k $166k (exactly $165,822) Whetstone Games
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory
K-pop Idol Stories: Road to Debut $19.99 175 53% 5.3k $105k (exactly $104,947) Wisageni Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.