Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Racing Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Racing

Of 31 developers who shipped a Racing Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 68 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 68 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $599 → $1.2k → $178 → $3.8k → $449 → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $480 (exactly $480)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 110
Announced 68
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Racing; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 214,213 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Mafia older $14.99 8,896 90% 267k $4.0M (exactly $4,000,531) Illusion Softworks
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Driver® Parallel Lines older $9.99 1,496 89% 45k $448k (exactly $448,351) Ubisoft Reflections
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
GangV | VR & PC Battle Royale · EA older $14.99 337 60% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) raptor lab
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
Captain Gazman Day Of The Rage $6.99 31 96% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewe… (Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewerk 'Bewegungsdruiden')
LivingForest $15.99 8 62% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) LivingEveryday
Grid Ranger $3.99 32 84% 960 $3.8k (exactly $3,830) Pixeljam
LivingBattle $15.99 6 50% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) LivingEveryday
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.