Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Quick-Time Events

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Quick-Time Events Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Quick-Time Events

Only 13 developers shipped a Quick-Time Events Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sex Shop Simulator: Sinful Girls, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $13k, ×9.1 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 14 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Quick-Time Events
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $1.2k → $719 → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Quick-Time Events: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $13,663)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 37
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Quick-Time Events; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Open World
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $960, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Resident Evil 4 (2005) older $19.99 78,502 94% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,077,649) Capcom
Resident Evil 6 older $19.99 51,420 77% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,836,574) Capcom
Resident Evil 5 older $19.99 48,521 87% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,098,044) Capcom
Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge older $1.99 7,062 77% 212k $422k (exactly $421,601) Invent4 Entertainment
Sex Shop Simulator: Sinful Girls $7.99 57 43% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Bits, Bytes & Sins
Touhou Iyuushou ~ What the Bullet Hell?! $9.99 36 100% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Cyoltose, 雨夜枫雪制作组 , 雾雨威Channel, 神心飘游堂,… (Cyoltose, 雨夜枫雪制作组 , 雾雨威Channel, 神心飘游堂, 阐幽赜书房)
Bad Way older $4.99 62 72% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) Montee Games
Your Spider older $11.99 15 86% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Your Spider Games
Recall · EA older $9.99 12 75% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Recall Studios
Night of the Dead Simulator $7.99 12 50% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Unknown People Lab
UNPLUG - The Game · EA $10.99 5 100% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) GoldLime Studios
City 33 $15.99 3 0% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) ebt studios
2 Hours Later $5.99 6 16% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) SevenGHON
King Quest $15.99 2 0% 60 $959 (exactly $959) slc studios
RollBot $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Tsukoni
100 Wars $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) 文艺复兴雪
Aero · EA $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) yavuz sinan aktaş

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.