Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Quick-Time Events

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Quick-Time Events Simulation game?

Simulation + Quick-Time Events

Of 116 developers who shipped a Quick-Time Events Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 133 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 133 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 133 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Quick-Time Events
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $299 → $2.1k → $779 → $3.4k → $898 → $600 (still earning) → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Quick-Time Events: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,934)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,620)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 260
Announced 133
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Quick-Time Events; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Life Sim, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 12,659 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 133 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue older $19.99 21,310 86% 639k $13M (exactly $12,779,607) Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev
Chef Life: A Restaurant Simulator older $29.99 2,222 83% 67k $2.0M (exactly $1,999,133) Cyanide Studio
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
Thriving City: Song older $18.99 3,054 81% 92k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) White Star Studio
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
Shenmue III older $29.99 1,028 75% 31k $925k (exactly $924,892) YS NET
恋爱单选题 older $10.99 2,424 81% 73k $799k (exactly $799,193) 无忧传媒
Accident older $14.99 1,462 76% 44k $657k (exactly $657,461) Duality Games, Spirit Games Studio
Ship, Inc. $9.99 2,168 83% 65k $650k (exactly $649,750) Rogue Duck Interactive
Lost But Found $6.99 2,316 71% 69k $486k (exactly $485,665) Rogue Duck Interactive
Cats & Cups $9.99 1,047 89% 31k $314k (exactly $313,786) Rogue Duck Interactive
Growing Things Up - Season 1 $12.99 707 91% 21k $276k (exactly $275,518) King, BLANQ
Cornerpond $2.99 2,567 97% 77k $230k (exactly $230,260) foolsroom
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
Bugtopia $5.99 866 92% 26k $156k (exactly $155,620) Nocturnal Games
CFS (Chinese Football Simulator) $9.99 290 67% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) 悟空实验室
Rally Arcade Classics $19.99 125 79% 3.8k $75k (exactly $74,962) NETK2GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.