Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + PvE

Of 211 developers who shipped a PvE Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 445 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 445 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 445 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 211
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.6k → $300 → $2.4k → $779 → $538 → $599 (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 211
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562)
Developers, 2 yr 211
Released games 621
Announced 445
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, PvE; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Online Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 392,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $750, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 126 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 445 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
World War Z older $29.99 24,897 82% 747k $22M (exactly $22,399,831) Saber Interactive Inc
Aliens: Fireteam Elite older $29.99 21,668 80% 650k $19M (exactly $19,494,700) Cold Iron Studios
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Aliens: Fireteam Elite 2 $49.99 3,515 61% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,271,446) Cold Iron Studios
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.