Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Platformer Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Puzzle Platformer

Only 13 developers shipped a Puzzle Platformer Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.9k → $119 → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 56
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Puzzle Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, 3D Platformer, Action-Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,713 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $120, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tomb Raider I-III Remastered Starring Lara Croft older $29.99 6,877 85% 206k $6.2M (exactly $6,187,237) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Haydee older $14.99 6,226 84% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,832) Haydee Interactive
Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered $29.99 1,507 89% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Tomb Raider I (1996) older $6.99 4,039 85% 121k $847k (exactly $846,978) Core Design
Tomb Raider II (1997) older $6.99 2,037 86% 61k $427k (exactly $427,159) Core Design
LIBERATED older $19.99 679 77% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Atomic Wolf, L.INC
Tamarin older $29.99 78 60% 2.3k $70k (exactly $70,177) Chameleon Games
Mineirinho Director's Cut older $0.99 1,365 66% 41k $41k (exactly $40,540) Sinned Games
Welcome Back To 2007 older $4.99 227 77% 6.8k $34k (exactly $33,982) Siberian Mouse
Messiah older $19.99 51 60% 1.5k $31k (exactly $30,585) Shiny Entertainment
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Yerba Buena $24.99 19 68% 570 $14k (exactly $14,244) Mad About Pandas
Untravelled Planet $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Yaqut Games
Chamberlore $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Deep Range Studio
Sync Together $0.99 8 100% 240 $238 (exactly $238) DarkRook Interactive
One Shot All Kill $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Creative Universe
Project Hash $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) 67ormsg272
Tung Tung Together: Online Deathrun Party · EA $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) DarkRook Interactive
little boy · EA $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) ali halil, ALİ HALİL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.